The danger signal of oil price Cushing’s oil storage space is close to exhaustion-www.62422.cn

The danger signal: Cushing oil storage space nearly exhausted the famous American energy information supply and data analysis firms Genscape report "situation" in the global oil market covers the core issues of concern to the market in the market, for the issue of inventory, the report said, U.S. crude oil inventories are close to the critical value, according to 19 data released in the United States EIA crude oil inventories last week increased to 50 million 410 thousand barrels, refresh the historical record, compared with the same period last year increased 18%. Crude oil inventories in Cushing, the main delivery site of US crude oil futures in Oklahoma, hit a record high of 64 million 700 thousand barrels last month in Cushing last month. Genscape said that the Cushing area oil storage equipment is almost full load operation state, the utilization rate is about 80%, if the current speed expansion, the remaining storage space will be exhausted after 4-5 months. The U.S. EIA refinery equipment utilization rate has climbed to 88.3% in February 12th. The size of oil inventories in the United States and oil prices are the opposite: Although the Midwest crude oil inventories increased by 2 million 250 thousand barrels last week, to 155 million barrels a record high level. But in the hub area, Cushing’s inventory increased by only 36 thousand barrels. This means that Cushing has consistently rejected requests to increase storage facilities. Damien Courvalin, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, warned in the 17 issue of the research report that the short-term risk of crude oil inventories in the Midwest of the United States is extremely high: large scale crude oil and finished product oil storage have made the utilization of storage equipment in central and western regions close to the highest level in history. Despite the recent central region should help reduce refining margins of refined oil storage space to avoid breaking the limit, but with the final product oil loss occurred, this would probably result in the next few months, crude oil inventories accelerated growth, oil prices will fall further in the Midwest, inventory growth will spread to the Mexico Bay area. Further decline in oil demand or exports, or higher storage profits, or eventually rebound crude oil imports or production will lead to more storage space, which will stimulate oil prices to further decline, resulting in the central region and Canada to reduce production. As we have said before, this persistent stock shortage problem should exacerbate the volatility of oil prices and storage profits. However, the problem of storage space has not deteriorated to the point of despair. There’s still a glimmer of hope: there’s plenty of free space from Cushing to the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Crude oil market is under the dual pressure of both supply side and demand side. EIA expects oil production in the Gulf of Mexico will increase by 1 million 790 thousand barrels per day in 2017, even though oil prices are still low, reaching 1 million 900 thousand barrels a day in December, hitting a record high. The region’s output will account for 18% and 21% of the total US output in 2016 and 2017, respectively. EIA data show that the demand for crude oil in the United States is rapidly declining. The figure below is the distillate fuel oil market theory

油价的危险信号:库欣储油空间接近耗尽   美国知名能源信息供应及数据分析公司Genscape在市场报告《全球原油市场现状》中覆盖了市场关心的核心问题,对于库存这一焦点问题,该报告称,美国原油库存正接近临界值,   根据19日公布的数据,美国EIA原油库存上周增至5041万桶,刷新历史最高记录,较去年同期大增18%。   位于俄克拉荷马州的美国原油期货主要交割地库欣(Cushing)原油库存则在上个月触及6470万桶的记录高位。   Genscape表示,库欣地区储油设备几乎是满负荷运营状态,利用率约为80%,若以当前速度扩增,则剩余存储空间将在4-5个月之后耗尽。而美国2月12日当周EIA精炼厂设备利用率也已经攀升至88.3%。 美国原油库存规模和油价走势恰好相反:   尽管美国中西部地区整体原油库存上周增加了225万桶,至1.55亿桶的记录新高水平。但其中,枢纽地区库欣的库存仅增加了3.6万桶。这意味着,库欣一如既往地拒绝了增加存储设施的请求。   高盛分析师Damien Courvalin在17日发布的研报中警告称,美国中西部地区原油库存问题短期风险极高: 大规模的原油和成品油库存已经令中西部地区的存储设备利用率接近历史最高水平。尽管近期中部地区炼油利润减少应当会帮助避免成品油存储空间突破极 限,但随着成品油最终发生亏损,这很可能只会导致未来几个月原油库存加速增长,中西部地区油价将因此进一步走低,库存增长态势将蔓延到墨西哥湾岸区。 进一步下滑的成品油需求或出口,或者更高的存储利润,或者最终反弹的原油进口或生产会导致存储空间更加紧俏,这将刺激油价进一步走低,继而导致中部地区和加拿大削减产量。正如我们此前所表示的,这种持续的库存紧张问题应当会加剧油价和存储利润的波动。   不过,存储空间问题也并没有恶化到令人绝望的地步。事情还存在一丝希望:从库欣到墨西哥湾海岸沿线还有很多空闲的管道空间。   原油市场目前处于供应端和需求端的双重压力之下。EIA预计,尽管油价仍处于低位,但美国墨西哥湾原油产量2017年日均将增加179万桶,在当年 12月达到每天190万桶,触及记录新高。该地区产量在全美总产量中的占比将在2016年和2017年分别达到18%和21%。   EIA提供的数据显示,美国原油需求正快速下滑。下图为美国馏分燃料油(distillate fuel oil)市场供应情况: 那么,假设美国原油库存空间真的耗尽,会发生什么情景呢?   大量无处可去的原油可能进一步压低现货价格,WTI原油期货期货升水(contango)曲线可能进一步陡峭。   此外,对于库欣地区满溢的储油设施问题,解决方案可能并非来自于解决存储能力方面,而是在原油生产方面。目前较低的油价可能已经在部分生产商的成本 线之下,且有可能进一步走低。而存储空间约紧张,相关存储费用就将飞涨。最简单的解决办法就是暂停油井运营。一旦价格反弹或者存储状况好转,页岩油生产商 可以很快回归市场。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: