Negative interest rates rise, the Fed hike is difficult to walk alone 西安外事学院宿舍

The tide of negative interest rates the Fed rate hike to the lone – reporter Yang Bo fed in Beijing Thursday morning released the January meeting minutes show that due to concerns about the recent global economic and financial market turmoil to the US economy from downside risk, decision-making on a more cautious attitude to continue to raise interest rates. After the central banks of Europe, Japan and other important economies have joined the negative interest rate camp, the Federal Reserve faces greater external pressure on monetary policy. On the one hand, since this year the global financial market jittery, the stock market fell sharply, oil prices fall, the global economy into recession warning sound can be heard without end. Since the announcement of the first interest rate hike last December, the performance of some important economic data in the United States has been weakening. In the fourth quarter of last year, the U.S. real GDP annualized growth rate was only 0.7%, less than expected. The Fed has to reconsider the rationality of tightening monetary policy in the face of the decline in overseas economic growth and the risk of financial market turmoil. On the other hand, more and more central banks have joined the negative interest rate camp, which has brought new pressure to the Fed policy. Recently, the Swedish central bank accidentally reduced repo rates from -0.35% to -0.50%, overnight deposits and overnight lending rates fell by 15 basis points, respectively, to -1.25% and 0.25%. After the end of January, the Bank of Japan announced the excess reserve rate down to negative. So far, a number of central banks, including Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark, the euro zone and Japan, have implemented negative interest rate policies. The negative interest rate moves by various central banks show sluggish expectations for the outlook for global economic growth, which makes the financial markets more volatile. If the US monetary policy continues to run counter to the major economies, it is likely to further force the dollar to rise, thereby putting inflation under pressure and increasing the impact on exports. With the spread of negative interest rates, it is hard for the fed to raise interest rates alone. At present, the market for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again this year is expected to be very low. Federal fund futures prices show that traders expect the fed to increase interest rates in March is only 6%, the probability of raising interest rates by the end of the year is only 33%. However, the interest rate path difficult does not mean that the Fed may quickly turned to relax monetary policy. Earlier, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen testified in Congress that if the Fed needed more easing, the Fed would study negative interest rates. Some market participants expect the fed to follow other central banks and join a negative interest rate camp. In fact, the probability of this happening is very low. First of all, under the support of a strong recovery in the job market, the U.S. inflation rate is expected to remain on a moderate upward track, and the "gradual" interest rate hike is still in line with the current economic situation in the United states. Second, even if the new risk factors forced the fed to return to loose, there are still many policy options, including interest rate cuts, reverse operations, and even asset purchases. Third, the negative interest rate is a controversial monetary policy tool, more aggressive than asset purchases, and its complex consequences for the financial system are difficult to predict fully, and the Fed must be highly cautious. At present, the Fed is the most talked about at this stage

负利率潮起 美联储加息难独行    □本报记者 杨博    美联储于北京时间周四凌晨公布的1月会议纪要显示,由于担心近期全球经济和金融市场动荡给美国经济带来下行风险,决策层对继续加息的态度更加谨慎。在欧日等重要经济体央行纷纷加入负利率阵营后,美联储在货币政策上面临更大的外部压力,加息征程恐生变数。    一方面,今年以来全球金融市场风声鹤唳,股市大幅走低,油价跌跌不休,全球经济重返衰退的警告声不绝于耳。自去年12月宣布首次加息以来,美国一些重要经济数据的表现趋于疲软,去年第四季度美国实际GDP年化环比增幅仅为0.7%,不及预期。面对海外经济增速下滑和金融市场动荡的风险,美联储不得不重新考虑收紧货币政策的合理性。    另一方面,越来越多央行加入负利率阵营,给美联储政策带来新的压力。近日,瑞典央行意外将回购利率从-0.35%进一步下调至-0.50%,隔夜存款和隔夜借贷利率同步下调15基点,分别至-1.25%和0.25%。此前的1月底,日本央行刚刚宣布将超额准备金利率下调至负值。至此,全球已有包括瑞典、瑞士、丹麦、欧元区和日本在内的多家央行实施负利率政策。    多国央行的负利率举措显示对全球经济增长前景的低迷预期,这使得金融市场愈发动荡不安。如果美国货币政策与主要经济体继续背道而驰,很可能进一步迫使美元升值,从而令通胀承压,并加大对出口的冲击。在负利率潮蔓延的背景下,美联储很难独自加息。    眼下市场对美联储今年内再次加息的预期已经非常低。芝商所联邦基金期货价格显示,交易商预计美联储3月再加息的概率仅为6%,年底前再加息的概率仅为33%。    然而,加息路径遇阻并不意味着美联储可能迅速掉转车头,重新放宽货币政策。此前美联储主席耶伦在国会作证时表示如果需要更多宽松政策,美联储会研究负利率。一些市场人士因而预期美联储可能步其他央行后尘,加入负利率阵营。事实上这种情况发生的概率极低。首先,在就业市场强劲复苏的支撑下,美国通胀率有望保持在温和上升的轨道上,“渐进式”加息仍符合美国当前的经济现状。其次,即便出现新的风险因素迫使美联储重返宽松,其仍有诸多政策工具可选,包括降息、再次进行扭转操作甚至资产购买等。第三,负利率是极具争议的货币政策工具,相比于资产购买更为激进,其给金融系统带来的复杂后果还很难全面预测,美联储对此必然持高度谨慎的态度。    目前来看,美联储现阶段最可能选择的政策路径就是按兵不动,继续强调对经济数据的依赖性,密切关注市场进展,与市场进行充分沟通,引导市场预期。如果金融环境进一步恶化,美联储甚至可能会明确释放出无限期推迟加息的信号。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: