Experts comment on China’s property market one side drought and one flood 同济大学体育部

Expert comments: China market side side Chinese property: while drought flood drought, flood – while the property market situation in the market is Chinese staged rare astronomical vision: much needed rain and drought, a few places are flooded. More specifically, the government adopted artificial cooling measures in arid areas, but the rain fell into waterlogged areas. Recently, there are two types of real estate news reports are relatively hot, one is frequent real estate policy, such as the first mortgage down payment ratio dropped to 20%, as well as the deed tax and second-hand housing business tax concessions. Two is a small number of urban housing prices accelerated, Shenzhen does not need to say, Shanghai, Beijing, Nanjing, Suzhou can not calm down. Shanghai Hongkou District a new site recently launched a new house, robbed light within a day, sales up to 3 billion 600 million yuan. The Shanghai second-hand housing market, the price jump, broken phenomenon emerge in an endless stream. If first-tier cities prices strong, people have got used to, such as the second city of Nanjing, Suzhou plate prices rose five or six a year, the local people just cannot read. In my opinion, the property market is China staged rare astronomical vision: much needed rain and drought, a few places are flooded. More specifically, the government adopted artificial cooling measures in arid areas, but the rain fell into waterlogged areas. As everyone knows, since November last year, the central government proposed to play a game of real estate to the inventory of annihilation, and greater pressure on the stock, it is also the dry weather, dry land area, the most serious is the "Three North": Northeast, North and northwest; followed by Southwest and central. Housing inventory pressure is small area, mainly distributed in the eastern region of the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, warm climate, in the core city of the two plates is more than heavy rain, the early flood, with Shenzhen as the core parts, including neighbouring Dongguan, Zhuhai, Huizhou, Zhongshan City, Shanghai as the center; including Suzhou and Nanjing. It is noteworthy that the government has adopted a differentiated control policy, classified guidance, due to the city policy. From the beginning of the two quarter of 2014, in most cities to cancel the restrictions on the purchase of credit limit, many policy text, explicitly excluding the first tier cities. Part of the new mortgage and tax incentives, not including the first tier cities. However, after two years, frequently easing, "Three North" and the southwest, the three or four line of the city’s inventory pressure is still large, the market is still oversupply, prices in most city still Yindie, the majority of small and medium housing prices are still struggling, even the boss phenomenon continues to run away. It’s true: the government actively implemented artificial rainfall, but "dry thunder, no rain."". The property of fertile soil above the eastern part of the city, but the heavy rain. Statistics Bureau 70 city house price index shows: in December 2015, a year earlier, Shenzhen housing prices rose nearly 47.5%, Shanghai rose 18.2%, ranking the top two; while Baotou and Yinchuan both fell 3.7%, ranking last. In addition, we need to point out that the volatility of the house price index is less than the actual market price. From the author’s understanding of the situation, compared to a year ago, Shenzhen housing prices rose by about 80%, but also the city’s general rise; Shanghai on

专家点评中国楼市:一边干旱 一边水灾   中国楼市:一边干旱,一边水灾   ■ 楼市风云   中国楼市正在上演罕见天文异象:多地大旱,急需落雨;而少数地区正在遭遇水灾。更奇特的是,政府在旱区采取了人工降温措施,但雨却落到涝区。   近期,有两类房地产方面的新闻报道比较热,一是房地产政策频出,比如首套房贷首付比例降至二成,再如契税与二手房营业税优惠等。二是少数城市房价加速上涨,深圳自不必说,上海、北京、南京、苏州也无法淡定了。   上海虹口区一新盘近日推出新房,一天内就被抢光,销售额高达36亿元。而有关上海二手房市场,房东跳价、毁约现象层出不穷。如果说一线城市房价强势,人们已经见怪不怪,那么作为二线城市的南京、苏州部分板块房价一年大涨五六成,当地人可就看不懂了。   在笔者看来,中国楼市正在上演罕见天文异象:多地大旱,急需落雨;而少数地区正在遭遇水灾。更奇特的是,政府在旱区采取了人工降温措施,但雨却落到涝区。   众所周知,去年11月以来中央提出要打一场房地产去库存的歼灭战,而库存压力较大的地区,也正是天气干燥、土地干裂的地区,最严重的是“三北”:东北、华北和西北;其次是西南和中部。   而房屋库存压力较小的地区,主要分布在东部地区的长三角、珠三角,这里气候温润,在这两个板块的核心城市,则大雨不止,初现涝灾,以深圳为核心,包括邻近的东莞、珠海、惠州、中山等市的部分地区;以上海为中心,包括苏州和南京。   值得关注的是,政府对此采取了差异化的调控政策,分类指导,因城施策。从2014年二季度开始,在多数城市取消限购限贷限外的时候,很多政策文本中,明确不包括一线城市。部分房贷和税收优惠新政,也不包括一线城市。   但是,持续两年、频频放松政策之后,“三北”和西南地区、三四线城市的库存压力仍然很大,市场依然供大于求,多数城市房价仍然阴跌,广大中小房企仍在苦苦挣扎,甚至老板跑路现象仍在持续。真可谓:政府积极实施人工降雨,但是“干打雷,不下雨”。   楼市土壤肥沃的上述几个东部城市,却大雨瓢泼。统计局70城房价指数表明:2015年12月同比一年之前,深圳房价大涨近47.5%、上海上涨18.2%,排名前两位;而包头和银川皆下跌3.7%,排名最后。   另外,需要提示一点:房价指数的波幅小于实际市价。从笔者了解的情况来看,相比一年之前,深圳房价平均上涨八成左右,而且是全市普涨;上海主城区上涨四成左右,但郊区,尤其是远郊只上涨一成左右。而包头和银川的很多楼盘仍在继续降价促销,而且成交量并未放大。   西边打雷东边雨,道是无情却有情。从楼市基本面分析,楼市旱灾地区,经济不振(尤其是东北和山西),人口流出,土地不稀缺,住宅库存大,供大于求,房价连续几年不涨。楼市涝灾地区,则正相反,经济稳健、人口流入,土地稀缺,库存较小,供不应求,房价上涨明显。   虽然涝区的利好政策并不多,但存在三种“下雨机制”。其一,连续降息降准,宽松的货币政策并不分地区,资金逐利,如水流动,在楼市领域,全国资金更愿意流进一线城市,而非三四线地区。   其二,在当前经济与楼市形势下,房价小涨,可以靠自住需求。但若想如深圳那样大涨,主要还得靠投资需求,或者自住与投资兼顾的复合需求,只有非自住需求,才会加大资金杠杆,才会刚刚500万买进,转手就以550万挂牌出售。而三北地区、三四线城市,投资需求很少。   其三,在少数强势城市,在房价加速上涨的过程中,如同不断加热的一锅油。此时货币面和政策面一旦有什么新的宽松政策出来,比如降息、比如减税,如同一滴水掉进锅里,立即油花四溅。即便是新政不包括一线城市,也会激起市场情绪的浪花。这是一种典型的资产价格上涨过程中的“正反馈”与“自我激励”机制。   □杨红旭(上海易居房地产研究院副院长) 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: