Deutsche Bank ticket price may lead to the European banking sector debt crisis 道临洪荒

The gold rally significant weakness: long short – give up pursuit of rapid withdrawal of Sohu financing with the Fed rate hike is expected to heat up, major sudden changes in the gold market straddle pattern. The latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that as of September 13th, the COMEX net futures and options contract net size decreased by 11% to 248 thousand and 858 (1 hands for 100 ounces), the biggest weekly decline since May 24th this year. The previous week, COMEX gold net multi head inch once increased to 278 thousand and 994 hands, the highest level since July 5th this year. In the industry view, the rapid withdrawal of gold long behind, because the hedge fund is eager to avoid this week the Fed may raise interest rates caused by the risk of falling gold prices. Although the market expects the fed to raise interest rates this week only 12%, but hedge funds are still worried about the financial market once again black swan event." Prudential Financial’s market strategist Quincy Krosby believes that even if the Fed does not raise interest rates this week, in view of its expected interest rate hike in December is expected to be strong, hedge fund move is also a rainy day. However, in the gold bull power rapidly on the occasion of the departure, but no large-scale capital short selling to the price of gold, really surprised markets. CFTC data show that as of September 13th week, COMEX gold speculative short market only a week before the slightly Masukura 2946 hands. Many gold traders believe that the power of bears dare to attack, there are many concerns: Deutsche Bank ticket price may lead to the European banking sector debt crisis; and the global economic growth is still weak, they fear to suppress the price of gold may lead to new haven investment demand. "More importantly, this year, the Federal Reserve frequently faces changes in the issue of interest rates." A gold trader pointed out that, at present, the bear is waiting for a long departure to depress the price of gold harvest returns. As of 15:00 on September 20th, by the Fed this week hike expected cooling shock, the U.S. dollar index fell below 96 integer mark, COMEX gold price rebounded to 1314 U.S. dollars near the ounce. In the eyes of the gold traders, in September 13th, when the hedge fund withdrew from the gold bulls, the market was surprised. "In fact, it’s a hedge fund’s move." Futony exchange (FXTM) chief market analyst Jameel Ahmad to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter pointed out that over the past four decades the Fed rate hike cycle, the dollar appreciated most often appear in the period of interest rate (or on the eve of the market against the U.S. dollar interest rate is expected to surge), resulting in gold during this period suffered substantial volatility decline. Now, the market is expected to rise again in the Fed’s interest rate hike in the year, hedge fund expectations, if watch the dollar rose, the price of gold fell, as early as possible profits cash. But Jameel Ahmad is also worried that hedge funds are likely to reverse the multi dominant pattern of gold this year: if the hedge fund’s gold bulls.

黄金涨势显疲态:多头迅速撤离 空头放弃追击-搜狐理财  随着美联储加息预期升温,黄金市场多空格局突然出现重大变化。   美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)最新数据显示,截至9月13日当周,COMEX黄金期货与期权合约净多仓规模减少11%,至24.8858万手(1手为100盎司),创下今年5月24日以来的最大单周跌幅。此前一周,COMEX黄金净多头头寸一度增至27.8994万手,创下今年7月5日以来的最高水平。   在业内人士看来,黄金多头迅速撤离背后,原因在于对冲基金急于规避本周美联储可能加息引发的金价下跌风险。   “尽管市场预计美联储本周加息的概率仅有12%,但对冲基金仍担心金融市场再度出现黑天鹅事件。”Prudential Financial旗下市场策略师Quincy Krosby认为,即便美联储本周不加息,鉴于其可能在12月份加息的预期浓厚,对冲基金此举也是未雨绸缪。   不过,在黄金多头力量迅速离场之际,空头资本却没有趁机大举沽空金价,着实令市场颇感意外。   CFTC数据显示,截至9月13日当周,COMEX黄金市场投机性空头仅较前一周小幅增仓2946手。   多位黄金交易员认为,空头力量不敢贸然出击,也有多方顾虑:德意志银行天价罚单可能引发欧洲银行业坏账危机;加之全球经济增长依然乏力,他们担心打压金价可能引发新的避险投资需求。   “更重要的是,今年以来美联储频频在加息问题上变脸。”一位黄金交易员指出,目前,空头正坐等多头离场压低金价收获回报。   截至9月20日15:00,受美联储本周加息预期降温冲击,美元指数跌破96整数关口,COMEX黄金价格反弹至1314美元 盎司附近。   多头迅速离场   在上述黄金交易员看来,9月13日当周对冲基金撤离黄金多头的速度之快,令市场大感意外。   “事实上这是对冲基金的无奈之举。”富拓外汇(FXTM) 首席市场分析师 Jameel Ahmad向21世纪经济报道记者指出,纵观过去数十年美联储四次加息周期,美元升值幅度最大时期往往出现在加息前夕(或市场对美元加息预期骤增时),导致黄金在这段时间遭遇大幅波动下跌。如今,市场对美联储年内加息预期再度升温,对冲基金预期,若坐视美元上涨金价下跌,不如尽早获利套现。   但Jameel Ahmad也担心,对冲基金此举很可能扭转今年以来黄金的多头主导格局:如果对冲基金的黄金多头头寸持续低于25万手,市场很可能认为黄金多头已经离场,令金价重回跌势。   他指出,目前多数对冲基金的黄金持仓占比在4%-5%,一旦金价受多头离场冲击跌破1300美元 盎司,可能会拖累对冲基金净值业绩表现。   National Securities Corp。旗下首席市场策略师Donald Selkin认为,对冲基金此举更多是采取高抛低吸策略。在美联储今年迟迟未加息的情况下,金价涨幅已超过24%,对冲基金存在较高的获利回吐需求,此时他们正好借美联储加息升温全身而退,待金价回落再抄底买入。   “当前全球经济增长乏力,金融市场动荡不断,对冲基金不会舍弃黄金,至少持仓占比不会低于5%。” Donald Selkin指出,不少对冲基金的黄金持仓成本在1260-1280美元 盎司,所以他们很可能等待金价在美联储加息冲击下,重新回到这个价格区间再考虑买入。   空头反击乏力   令市场颇感意外的是,黄金多头力量迅速离场的同时,空头却没有趁机大举沽空金价套利,仅在9月13日当周增加2946手空头头寸,增幅仅为多头减仓幅度的1 10。   “美联储官员近期释放了鸽派言论,让空头力量感到不安。” Jameel Ahmad认为。   作为美联储9月会议前公开演讲的最后一位官员,美联储理事Brainard表示,虽然美国经济取得进步,但劳动力市场改善对通胀提升有限,美联储应谨慎不该过快加息。   此番言论在黄金空头看来,无异于暗示美联储可能再度变脸,未必如市场预期般加息。   事实上,金融市场对美联储变脸早有准备。芝加哥商品交易所(CME)根据美国联邦基金期货交易制作的美联储观察工具显示,当前市场预计本周美联储加息概率仅为12%。与此对应的是,更多机构认为美联储可能在12月加息,概率达55%。   除此之外,空头还担心G20杭州峰会后,G20各国达成共识,不得一味单边行动扩大QE规模刺激经济增长,避免货币政策使用过度,为此美联储可能暂不加息。   “如果达成共识,对金价无疑是利好。当前金价上涨最大的障碍,就是美联储加息引发美元大幅升值。”多位黄金交易员认为,这也导致空头对沽空金价套利更为谨慎。   在Jameel Ahmad看来,空头的谨慎并非无的放矢,尽管9月15日全球最大黄金ETF SPDR Gold的黄金持仓降至932.22吨,创下今年6月以来的新低,但对欧美货币政策变化最为敏感的货币基金黄金净多头头寸仍接近27.9万手,徘徊在7月上旬创下的历史高点附近。这意味着大量货币基金经理仍押注美联储短期不会加息。   Jameel Ahmad认为,在黄金多头迅速离场而空头反击乏力的情况下,黄金市场多空博弈正出现微妙的平衡,这种平衡何时被打破,取决于美联储的加息进程。相关的主题文章: